Somali’s -Regional Power House – Jubbaland

In Summary

• On 28^th February 2013, more than 500 delegates convened in Kismayo, Lower Juba region to attend the opening conference which would discuss and plan the proposed formation of Jubbaland. The conference was attended by several high profile politicians including former TFG Prime Minister Omar Abdirashid Ali Sharmarke and former Minister of Defense of TFG Mohamed Abdi Mohamed (Gandhi)
• The 2016 Elections, Jubbaland constitutes 51 out of 329 of the Houses of Federal Parliament. 43 House of Representatives while the remaining 8 are from the House of Senate Held in Kismayo Administered and Co Administered by SIEIT and FIEIT.
• The regions involved are Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Gedo, Which are adjacent to Kenya and Ethiopia.
• Jubbaland held two local elections successfully and one National election
• The Economy of the Region Jubbaland is Mainly Agricultural based, relies heavily on its Fisheries and Livestock
• Combining all these resources politically, economically and Militarily, currently and strategically in the long run, Jubbaland is the regional  Power House, The Power that can decide and shift the country’s strategic vision and its ally at the region and global

Conceptualization on regional Power

Global politics have moved from the Bi-Polar system of the cold war to Uni- Polar Moment. But Super Powers efforts to maintain Uni-polar System stimulates greater efforts by the major powers to move towards multi-Polar One. Now the international system is passing through one or two Uni-Mult-Polar decades before it enters a truly Multi-Polar 21^stCentury.

Hurell (2006) Mentions the following four criteria characterizing Greater Power within the region or Member States in greater country in Post Conflict Situation as it applies in the context of Jubbaland Somalia.

• Capacity to contribute Internally/ Externally with the Preference to international order
• Internal Cohesion to Allow Effective State Action
• Economic Power – Such as high level of Economic Market Growth
• Military Power – With the ability to compete with dominant Powers in conventional war

The Theory Balance of Power and It’s Application Jubbaland Establishment

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Jubba delegation held talks in Addis Ababa from 20th – 27th August 2013, under the auspices of the IGAD Chair of the Council of Foreign Ministers. The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and Jubba delegations, discussed several issues regarding political, governance and security situation of the Jubba.

The Agreement is yet binding as the second vice president is on track in a consultation on Politics and Power sharing modules. A political power sharing agreement mandates or facilitates the participation of a broad set of decision makers in government. Powersharing aims to ensure that no groups, and ideally no citizens, suffer policies that are seriously detrimental to their interests. The study of power sharing is greatly beholden to Arend Lijphart’s research on democracy in divided societies. Lijphart (1977) originally conceptualized “consociational democracy” as characterized by grand coalitions, a mutual veto, segmental autonomy, and proportional representation. The same ambiguity is present in political power sharing , which we thus divide into (1) inclusive agreements that mandate the participation of several parties or groups in particular offices or decision making processes, (2) dispersive agreements that divide authority among actors in a well-defined pattern (e.g., territorial decentralization), and (3) constraining agreements that limit the power of any actor and thus protect ordinary citizens and vulnerable groups against encroachment and abuse. Inclusive power sharing places power broadly and jointly in the hands of multiple recognized groups. In accordance with Jubbaland convention aimed to establish was set to diverse powersharing arrangements, the clan based formula of the state establishment were broadly described the division of state authorities, include Two deputy Presidents and inclusive Judiciary branch and Executive Powers, that shows you how power and political settlements are dispersed with in the communities Jubbaland based on international standard

Federal Government Hegemony

Hegemony describes the dominance of one Social group or class in a society. This control can exercised subtly rather than forcefully through cultural means and economic power, and rest on mixture of consent and coercion. Original intellectual concept. The modern concept of hegemony often attributed to the 1920s Italian social theorist Antonio Gramsci – Was used explain how powerful economic or social group came to dominate without maintaining a state constant fear

Global Hegemony in International Politics, Hegemony now refers to either

• The dominance of one power on the global stage or
• The regional predominance of Single Country

Both Two Houses of the Parliament selected current serving President Mohammed Abdullahi Farmaajo on 8^th February 2017, President appointed Hassan A Khaire On 23^rd February 2017. Parliament approved unanimously 1st March 2017. Somalia Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire announced on Thursday the new cabinet of Ministers The prime minister named 27 ministers, 15 state ministers and 20 deputy ministers. Khaire made the announcement during an official ceremony at the presidential palace in the Somali capital of Mogadishu. Most of the cabinet Ministers approved was Parliamentarians. The idea behind the nominating the Federal MP’s of lower chamber was to defend their interest on the country’s 2020/21 Elections. It seems that Nabad iyo Nolol Group literally Meaning ( The Peace and Life Groups) Who have no legal recognition of the Country’s National Independent Electoral Commission) NIEC The Group’s ideological principle destroys the  country’s hardly earned reconciliation and Peace building process. The group practices the hegemony principle of dominance by either you is with them or against them. After securing that the House of The People the lower chamber of the federal Parliament is under the office of the Prime Minister’s dictation, they tend the only remaining obstacle is the Speaker of the House Mr Mohammed Osman Jawaari. They started submitting a motion employing the deputy Speaker of the House and then thrown and installed the current House of The Speaker Mr Mohamed Mursal who was serving under the portfolio of Defense Minister of the Khaire’s Cabinet. Explaining Member States situation faced by the illegal acts of hegemony for the office of the Prime Minister and the States House/ Office of the President. The Power hungry associates annexed  HirShabeelle Administration from CIC- Council of Inter State Cooperation, faced intimidations and  severe relations with government, then imposed sanctions include withdrawal of the armed forces who are the under control of the government include AMISOM, cutting the aid and other assistance. By force with no other option the HirShabeelle administration was hijacked by the office of the Prime Minister their daily duty will instructed by the office of the Prime Minister.

Member State Elections – Somali

South West lawmakers elected governments preferred candidate as it’s leader in a controversial poll, after a popular leader Mukhtar Robow barred from the running, the vote seen as test on country’s 2021 Elections. Atleast 11 People were killed in the south West capital Baidoa in a clash erupted following the arrest of of Mukhtar Robow.  The arrest of Mr Mukhtar Robow  who has popular support of the South West State community tightened the tension. The Government were not respected the demand of the people and installed President Laft Gareen. The South West People still chant the release of their populist Leader Mukhtar Roobow and they waiting to see  one day before 2021 elections Mukhtar Robow release  and election  to administer South West State. The South West Community are expecting in one day Farmaajo-Khaire government will face justice, counting their act of arrogance and un-merciful operation resulted death and displacement of civilians. In addition Mukhtar Robow surrendered his extremist ideology Early 2017.

Jubbaland President Ahmed Mohammed Islam Proposed Seven (7) Members Commission of Jubbaland Independent Electoral and Boundaries commission (JIEBEC). And sent Formal Request explaining the necessity to establish such kind of Commission mandated by Jubbaland Constitution the parliament approved unanimously. The commission postponed the election schedule two times due to the submission of their candidacy documents Commission set the final date of election on 22^nd of August 2019 and election commenced peacefully. The current serving president SH Ahmed Mohammed Islam became the Winner with the Majority of the votes and sworn in front of the new parliamentarians of Jubbaland crowned second term in four years.  President stressed during his speech Victory that he is ready for reconciliation and consultation conference to re correct mistakes occurred during the elections, President Ahmed prolonged the cost of rebuilding a nation form the Ash by reconciling the warring function and building together one administration, President Quoted” in Reality the Process of Building state from Chaos and lawlessness to the Post Conflict Situation in Fragile State,  is Not an Easy Task” none of us don’t want to go back, we are requesting you strongly my president, Jubbaland is ready for talks intended to normalize the relation, in fact the only binding documents that we practice, is the Provincial Constitution let everyone respect and obey, I am sure we together prosper calling once again for talks. The Federal Government doesn’t respect the call of the elected president and severed the relation and illegally arrested Minister of Security Abdirashid Janan, and invested Opposition Aspirants to create civil unrest and stalemate between the functions of the Community. Strategically Jubbaland administration has taken an option of strategy “See and Wait” looking their reactions. After failed attempts to fuel social un-rest government tightened the tension and imposed sanction on Air Travel Ban Jubbaland people in particular Kismayo and Dhobley Communities is the victim of the government air travel ban and met dare conditions most of the victims are Mother and Child. In addition Jubbaland Administration launched a fact finding Mission mandated to assess the Gross Human Rights Violations Resulted by the Travel ban

The Gal Mudug Parliament is being dissolved by the Ministry of Interior Federal Affairs and Reconciliation following the move that Ministry accredited a degree to dismantle the functioning government and install the Pro government candidate. MoIFAR set guidelines of the Galmudug elections of which they have no authority to delegate these activities in state level. People of Gal Mudug raised their concern over what they call in-active installation. People underlined they will establish a new administration if the government interferes the election of Gal-Mudug. We will be looking closely actions of the Mogadishu Based government.

Constitutional Disputes – Member States Vs Federal Government

The debate of the Constitutional Misinterpretations existed since its first inception of Provincial Constitution 2012; number of Prime Ministers went away to the country’s top executive branch after a heated debate of constitutional powers with those serving president.  The Question is Who Violates the Constitution?  The intellectual networks and population at large underscores that the Federal Government of Somalia Violates the Constitution and abuses its compliance with Federal Member States. The following an article stipulates both Federal member state and Federal Government exclusive and inclusive powers sometimes requiring negotiation with Federal Member States. Following are the articles of the Provincial Constitution in number: 142, 53, 54, and 48,120. Member states expressed their concern over the federalism process in Somalia; Federal Government is working on a plan to derail the country’s Resource Sharing, Federalism Process, Constitutional Review Process and Foreign Aid. Number of times Federal Member States call Temporary Suspension on Federal Government collaboration on national issue’s until Government realizes and appreciates Federal Member States role on the country’s reconstruction and stabilization process hence, Member States control 90 % of the Country.

Can be reached:

Faisal Mataan is Humanitarian Development Advisor and Political Commentator. Founder Sanguni Research and Development Institute (SRDI) based in Kismayo.  Studied BA Economics and Political Science Osmania University Hyd India.MBA Elective Human Resource and Marketing Punjab Technical University India Jalandhar. Pursuing M A International Relation and Diplomacy.  Currently Advisor Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation Puntland

Dalka1898@gmail.com  Twitter: @Faisal Mataan.  Phone: 0907747364/0616889056